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		The issue that dare not speak its name March 30 2005 By general consent, the Tory party in 2001 talked too much about Europe. But there is a risk that in 2005, we shall talk about it too little. I well remember the 2001 campaign. I especially remember standing on a street corner in the little Leicestershire town of Lutterworth, with a small but spirited band of helpers, holding aloft our "Keep the Pound" banners. We were hailed with enthusiasm by passers-by. Cars pooped their horns. Truck drivers waved. Voters flocked to sign petitions. We were on a roll. Yet come Election Day, the Tory campaign crashed and burned, and with the power of hindsight we all know why. The public conflated the broader issue of Europe with the narrower issue of the euro currency. Labour had skilfully "parked" that issue by promising a referendum, and therefore, while the voters agreed with us on the euro, they felt that the issue was irrelevant to the General Election. They voted on schools and hospitals, and they believed, wrongly as it proved, that Labour could be trusted on public service delivery. It is a truism that the generals are generally fighting the last war, and are taken aback by the realities of the next one. The Conservative Party has learned too well the lessons of 2001, and has soft-pedalled the question of Europe in 2005. Of course we have a policy, and if anyone asks, we will tell them. But -- quite literally -- we don't make an issue of it. And there are rational arguments to support this approach. Labour has sought to repeat the successful trick of 2001. They have never delivered on their commitment to a euro referendum, because there has never been a moment when they thought they could win it. Yet they have now promised (ever so reluctantly) to hold a referendum on the EU Constitution. And they hope and expect that this, in turn, will "park" the issue of Europe until after the current election. Opinion polls continue to show that voters rate Europe well down their list of concerns, after health, schools, crime, immigration, tax and so on. But we who follow the European debate know that Europe matters, as much as anything, because it directly affects these other issues higher up the voters' priority list. The voter who says on the doorstep "Europe's a long way away and it doesn't affect me" is the same voter exercised by schools'n'hospitals, bobbies on the beat, immigration and taxes -- the five issues at the heart of the Conservative campaign. And every one of these issues is a hostage to EU policy. In the case of immigration, the threat is direct. We have been told by Brussels that an incoming Conservative government cannot implement its proposals on asylum and immigration, because they conflict with EU treaty commitments already made by the present Labour government. Of course we will implement our policy regardless of what Brussels says, but we could not have more dramatic evidence of the way in which "Europe" impinges on issues that matter to voters. In terms of policing, the problem is similar. Corpus Juris, the EU's "area of freedom, security and justice", the European Arrest Warrant, the European Public Prosecutor -- we are moving inexorably towards a federal police and justice system, and the EU Constitution provides the framework. Labour protests that it has a red line on taxes. Yet the Constitution gives the Commission a duty to "coordinate economic policies" of member states. If the Commission believes that its duty is obstructed by a tax opt-out, it will ask the ECJ to resolve the dilemma, and the ECJ will rule in favour of tax harmonisation. As we have seen in the USA, "States' Rights" are helpless against the incursion of the federal government. Of the Tories' five key commitments, schools'n'hospitals seem least susceptible to Brussels interference. But don't count on it. The Constitution establishes "public health" as an EU competence, and it provides for "supporting, coordinating or complementary action" in health, education, vocational training, culture, youth and sport. The potential for euro-creep is evident, and is enormous. We are already overwhelmed by directives on food safety, vitamins and supplements, health claims and so on, plus the new EU Food Standards Agency. Every one of these policy areas is hamstrung by the perverse and unintended consequences of the European Convention on Human Rights -- a convention we must repeal. The fact is that each of the five key Tory commitments is hostage to EU policy, and that is a fairly straightforward message for the voter -- if we keep passing powers to Brussels, we won't be able to respond to voters' real concerns. Indeed, their government in Westminster will have derisory residual powers, and their democratic right to decide who governs them will have been devalued if not destroyed outright. There is another reason why the Tories should not ignore the European issue. We know that 16% of voters supported UKIP in June 2004. Now of course many of those are natural Conservatives who will come back of their own accord. But at the margin there are those -- maybe 2%, maybe 5% -- who will be torn between a Conservative vote, and support for a rejectionist fringe party. They know in their hearts that the choice on May 5th is between Blair and Howard as Prime Minister. They know that a vote for UKIP is half a vote for Blair. Yet the self-indulgent attraction of gesture politics may prove too tempting on the day. Those who care about Europe may be a small minority -- but they care passionately, and they could be enough to swing the result. All they need is a little reassurance. Most of them will accept current Tory policy on the EU -- No to the euro, No to the Constitution, repatriation of fisheries and foreign aid, repeal of the social chapter, and of the ECHR to the extent that it obstructs other policy commitments. We must not let our case -- and their votes -- go by default.